From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.
He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.
Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
It is widely rejected the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.
